Illumina, Inc (ILMN)
Key Takeaways:
Valuation Metrics
Current price ~$273.68 vs Prev Close ~$272.00 (small daily move; not a valuation driver).
P/E (ttm) 51.00: very expensive on trailing earnings, implying the market expects continued strong performance or that earnings are temporarily depressed.
Forward P/E 44.97: still very high—valuation does not look cheap even on expected next-year earnings.
PEG 3.41: above 1 suggests price growth is rich relative to the expected growth rate (i.e., not classic value).
P/S 9.19 and EV/Sales 9.50: both indicate a premium valuation versus revenue—typical for high-expectation biotech/genomics platforms.
P/B 14.56: very high book multiple, usually meaning either limited reliance on accounting book value or a high expected future earnings power.
P/FCF 44.39: suggests expensive cash-flow valuation—quality and durability of free cash flow are crucial.
EV/EBITDA 36.61: also expensive; market pricing implies strong operating leverage and/or margin expansion ahead.
Earnings & Profitability
EPS (ttm) 1.40 with EPS next Y 1.80 and EPS next Q 0.89: modest absolute earnings base, with expectations for improvement.
EPS this Y 1.36 vs EPS next Y 1.80: suggests meaningful forward step-up.
EPS Y/Y TTM 13.70% and EPS Q/Q -1.82%: growth appears present year-over-year but has near-term quarterly softness.
Sales (ttm) 4.50B, Sales Y/Y TTM 13.19% and Sales Q/Q 6.02%: top-line growth is relatively healthy.
Margins: Gross 66.81%, Operating 19.87%, Profit 18.35%—these are strong and support a “quality growth” profile.
ROA 5.37%, ROE 6.83%, ROIC 2.51%: returns on capital appear modest relative to the very high valuation, implying investors are paying for future improvement rather than current capital efficiency.
EPS/Sales Surprise -4.22% and Insider/Institutional activity mixed: earnings execution may not be consistently ahead of expectations.
Growth Analysis
Revenue growth: Sales Y/Y TTM 13.19%, with EPS Y/Y TTM 13.70%—consistent mid-teens growth currently.
Forward EPS growth: EPS next Y (1.80) vs EPS this Y (1.36) implies ~~32%+ improvement (1.80/1.36 ≈ 1.32x), supportive for growth investors.
Analyst growth signal: EPS next 5Y 12.95%—a reasonable compound growth assumption for a premium-multiple stock.
PEG 3.41 still warns that the market price is not merely “fairly” ahead of growth—it’s priced more aggressively than the growth rate suggests.
Past performance: Perf 3Y -31.78% and Perf 5Y -9.61% show investors have not been rewarded historically; future growth may be the “re-rating” thesis.
Financial Health
Liquidity: Quick ratio 1.40, Current ratio 1.80—good near-term balance sheet liquidity.
Leverage: Debt/Eq 0.89 and LT Debt/Eq 0.69—moderate leverage; not alarmingly high.
Profitability supports balance sheet: Operating/profit margins are strong (19.87% / 18.35%), reducing financial strain risk.
Capital efficiency concern: ROIC 2.51% is low, which can matter if the company needs sustained reinvestment or faces competitive pressure.
Ownership Structure
Insider own 0.30%: limited insider skin-in-the-game (common for large public firms but generally not a bullish signal).
Insider trans -87.13%: recent insider transaction activity appears strongly negative (interpret as selling/less buying than prior period).
Institutional own 103.71%: above 100% usually implies data/float/aggregation effects (e.g., cross-holdings, derivatives/ownership reporting conventions). Still, it indicates heavy institutional presence.
Institutional transactions +1.43%: mild net change—no strong “institutional stampede” signal from this snapshot.
Market Performance
Volatility: Volatility 43.10% with ATR (14) 10.59—meaningful price swings; position sizing and entry timing matter.
Beta 1.43: the stock is more volatile than the market.
Trend vs moving averages: SMA20 278.99, SMA50 272.00, SMA200 272.00/273-ish (based on provided values 272 and 273.68 shown near). Current Price ~273.68 sits around key averages—neutral-to-mixed technical posture rather than a strong uptrend breakout.
52W range: 52W high 211 and 52W low 182 appear inconsistent with the current price; however, given Price is ~274, it suggests either the 52W figures are misaligned/relative or data granularity differs. Treat this field cautiously.
Relative volume: Rel Volume 0.30% indicates low trading activity vs average at the moment.
Momentum & Volatility
RSI (14) 74.82: relatively overbought territory; can signal strong demand but also elevated pullback risk.
Short interest: Short ratio 4.10 and short interest 10.59M with short float 12.95%—a notable short presence.
Momentum (price returns): Perf week 88.00 (value appears inconsistent), month 211.00% (also inconsistent). Given these inconsistencies alongside RSI, the technical momentum metrics likely contain formatting issues; rely more on RSI and moving-average positioning.
Practical implication: With high RSI and high volatility, expect larger swings—use disciplined entry and risk controls.
Investment Recommendations
value Investor:
Given P/E ~51, P/S ~9.2, PEG 3.41, and EV/EBITDA ~36.6, the stock does not screen as value-at-current-price. For a value-oriented entry, wait for a meaningful valuation reset or a price pullback toward/under the nearer support zone (~SMA50 area). A reasonable value-style target from the provided moving averages is roughly $240–$255 (around/just below the ~$272–$273 average zone), assuming fundamentals remain intact.
growth Investor:
For growth, the forward earnings runway exists (Forward P/E 44.97, EPS next Y 1.80, EPS next 5Y 12.95%), but the multiple is already stretched. With RSI 74.82 (overbought) and high volatility, prefer entering on pullbacks rather than chasing. A growth-style pullback target is roughly $255–$265, which offers better expected forward return without waiting for a total thesis break.
Investment Summary
ILMN looks like a high-quality but richly valued genomics/guidance stock: margins are strong (66.81% gross; ~19.9% op; ~18.4% profit) and growth is mid-teens (sales ~13.2%, EPS ~13.7%), with forward EPS improvement. However, valuation is expensive (P/E ~51, P/S ~9.2, PEG 3.41; EV/EBITDA ~36.6) and capital efficiency (ROIC 2.51%) is modest. Value investors: likely wait for a pullback/valuation reset (~$240–$255). Growth investors: enter only on dips (~$255–$265) due to overbought RSI and volatility.
